ZCZC OKCWRKOKC 000
TTAA00 KOKC 041745
04 April 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1145 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  N/A  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  N/A  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a hectic day yesterday, today is much less of a problem.  Although
the moisture remains backed up into south TX, the winds at the surface 
have swung around to northerly ahead of the arctic air mass (which had 
made it into southern KS at 12Z).  Thus, any surface based convection is
unlikely to be of the targetable variety, although some marginal svr
tstms are possible in the extreme southern parts of the VORTEX domain.
700-500 delta-t's are down a bit from yesterday and it's not clear that
any process is going on to increase them again ... with moisture and
some marginal instability, but non-encouraging wind profiles, if tor-
nadoes occur today, they probably will not be of the supercellular type.
Operations are not being conducted today

With the slow passage of the short wave trough in the southern stream, 
it seems that targetable storms are unlikely though most of the rest of
the week, but it is encouraging that the arctic air is not going to push
the moisture away.  The system in the southern stream appears to be in
the process of lifting out, more or less as progged by the models, so 
we can look to the next system with some optimism.  MRF and ECMWF solu-
tions look quite different about the southern plains severe wx potential
as the weekend approaches, so will have to wait and see ... MRF looks to
be the most promising, so that probably will not happen.

	Doswell/Crisp

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   90      30
SEVERE                      40      10
TORNADOES                   10      02
TARGETABLE STORM            05      01

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             240/35   -----
SUPERCELL                 280/20   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1300    ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1445    -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----


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