ZCZC OKCWRKOKC 000
TTAA00 KOKC 051530
05 April 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1030 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA: N/A  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The lack of any prospect for a coincidence of significant moisture and
instability today precludes any likelihood for supercells.  Hence, there
will be no operations today

The remaining question of import is the fate of the system over central
TX at 12Z ... models persist in a relatively rapid progression of this
system eastward, with a significant surface low developing by 24-36 h in
the eastern Gulf.  Opposed to this trend is the 12Z structure, showing a
vertically stacked cyclone, which might indicate a slower movement than
progged.  The new ETA is bringing a strong cyclone into the central
Rockies by 48 h and it appears that this is acting as a "kicker" for the
system in the southern branch.  For the moment, we will continue to
accept the eastward progression, although the sat loop suggests that the
movement may be quite slow for at least the next 12 h or so, until it
begins to "feel" the approach of the trough entering the western U.S.

Based on the MRF it appears that perhaps as early as Friday, and more 
likely on Saturday, there is a chance for an operational day.  If the 
departing system in the southern branch doesn't push the low level moist-
ure too far south, it may not take much of a return flow to set things 
up.  Of course, the timing and intensity and trajectory of the nest 
system will be critical and it's too early to do more than take note of
the MRF ... and observe that the ECMWF model suggests a slower approach,
allowing a more reliable moisture return, but pushing the system farther
south than the MRF, perhaps too far to allow VORTEX operations.  This 
will require some time to resolve itself.

	Doswell/McCammon

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   30      20
SEVERE                      05      02
TORNADOES                   02      00
TARGETABLE STORM            02      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-


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ZCZC OKCWRKOKC 000
TTAA00 KOKC 051600
05 April 1995

Supplement to discussion sent at 1030 CDT:

Given that the system over central TX has become quasistationary, there
is a possibility we didn't mention in the previous discussion for today.
It doesn't affect the VORTEX operation because it is too far south to 
consider working today, but there is some potential for low-topped,
"cold-air" supercells (?) east of the cyclone center in central and
south central TX.  Residual moisture and relatively clear skies to the
southwest of the cyclone center means it may destabilize this afternoon,
and have enough moisture to develop strong storms with relatively low
tops. Although the process by which such storms produce tornadoes is not
completely understood, experience suggests this may materialize this
afternoon.  The probabilities are not going to be updated (that's cheat-
ing!) but there is some small chance that tornadoes could be reported in
the southern extremes of the VORTEX operations area.  Whether such
storms are indeed supercells would be of interest to study but the sys-
tem is too far away to expend resources on a low-probability scenario.

	Doswell/McCammon


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