VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1030 AM CDT APRIL 12 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1030 CDT:  NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Disgusting cold stable dry airmass continues to preclude any
chance of activity during the next two days, so will not 
waste the bandwidth talking about them.

Friday's chances not looking very promising with today's
data and recent model runs.  If everything were to go just
right, enough "dynamics" with the next shortwave trough
would just brush the moisture return to give a chance for a
supercell or two in western TX.  This morning's ETA looks 
rather weird, overdeveloping a surface low in eastern MT by
Friday morning ... expect the surface low would be in west-
ern NE ... if the H500 prog were to verify.  Given the H500
scenario from the morning ETA, there is a chance the mois-
ture would barely have time to get back as the shortwave
trough brushes by ... as noted above.  Things look pretty
iffy and if Friday doesn`t pan out, we may have to wait til
Monday.

	Doswell/McCammon 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   00      02
SEVERE                      00      00
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -N/A-   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 -N/A-   -N/A-

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -N/A-   -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -N/A-   -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               -N/A-   -N/A-