VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 25 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  no operations
TARGET AREA:  n/a
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  
none
DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
lack of moisture and lifting boundary will minimize chances
for severe convection today.  there could be some high-based 
tstms in northern ptns of the vortex area this eve as strong
isentropic lift zone sets up in kansas and xtrm northern ok
(as per ruc fcst), an area also in the left exit region of
an apprchg 300 mb jet max.  no mesocyclones are expected,
although some small hail is psbl.

wed still appears to be the day - psbly the only active day
this week.  mstr wl be late to arrive, but this actually
could help by minimizing chcs for a premature release of
wdsprd tstms.  the new eta is faster and a bit weaker than 
previous runs, but it may be showing too much phasing 
between the apprchg idaho short wave and another which will
be moving across the great lakes wednesday.  idaho system
may bcm a bit deeper and slower moving than progged by eta.  
plenty of shear and high mid-lvl lapse rates/cold air aloft
still make wed look promising for mesocyclones.  current 
indications are that svr tstms should be in eastern sections
of the vortex area wed.    


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   40      90
SEVERE                      10      50
TORNADOES                   00      30
TARGETABLE STORM            00      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL               na    250/40  
SUPERCELL                   na    280/35 

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                   na    1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT              na    1600
1ST TORNADO                 na    1800