VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 10 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO OPERATIONS
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

WX NIL. RELATIVELY COOL SFC HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE OPS 
AREA FREE FROM TSTMS TDA. 

FOR THU...25TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1970 LUBBOCK TORNADO...
OUR FOCUS IS IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR PSBL TSTMS. ATTM IT
APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LVL MSTR WILL WORK UP INTO ERN NM FOR
AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. IT IS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT TARGETABLE STORMS WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH
EAST BEFORE DARK FOR VORTEX OPERATIONS. 

FRI STILL SEEMS LIKE A BETTER CHC AT SUPERCELLS FROM THE 
TX PNHDL NWD INTO WRN KS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE AMT OF 
UPR WARMING SEEN ON THE AVN 72 HR FCST VALID FRI EVE. 
OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK FVRBL (SFC TROF...ADEQUATE FLOW...
AND PERHAPS A DECENT AMT OF CAPE E OF DRYLN). STILL A LOT 
OF TIME TO CONSIDER THE PROSPECTS FOR FRI. IF AN E/W FNTL
BNDRY DVLPS NEAR THE RED RIVER...CHC FOR FRI INCREASES
MARKEDLY.

BAKER/KERR

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   00      20
SEVERE                      00      10
TORNADOES                   00      05
TARGETABLE STORM            00      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   -----
SUPERCELL                 -----   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----