VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 13 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  No VORTEX ops
TARGET AREA:  none  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: none 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

One strong system is lifting rapidly north-northeastward,
taking the best dynamics well out of the ops area.  The dry-
line has pushed eastward into central OK overnight, with a
zone of veered winds and gradually decreasing dewpoints out
in front of the really dry air.  This means that the hodo-
graphs in the moist air do not look very threatening this
morning.  An obvious problem is the strength of the cap and
it seems unlikely that the high CAPE shown in the 12Z FWD
sounding will be tapped.  A thermal trough at H500 is over 
AZ/NM at 12Z and shows up as a bulge in the WV imagery but
it appears that it also is moving northeastward ... away
from the low-level moisture.  Progs suggest that the system 
to the west is going to back the low-level flow and reduce
the drive on the dryline ... especially in TX, so that the
moisture will stay in place in TX and southeastern OK, but
the cap will be difficult to overcome without some strong
forcing and that seems unlikely.  With the backing of the
low-level flow taking place in the dry air during the day,
it seems that even if something gets going, it will not have
a good profile to work with.  As has been typical with the
strong dynamics of this spring, the timing has been off and 
the next system to the west seems to fit that pattern.  The 
potential might be tapped overnight, however, with any day-
light convection develoing very late in the day and it may
grow into an MCS overnight if it goes at all.

Tomorrow looks pretty dead, also.  The likely persistence of
moisture and instability precludes really low probabilities
but the models support the idea that tomorrow is not very
promising.

	Doswel/Crisp 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   40      20
SEVERE                      20      10
TORNADOES                   05      05
TARGETABLE STORM            10      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             250/30  -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 280/15  -N/A-

FORECAST INITIATION TIMES - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1900    -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1930    -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               2015    -N/A-