VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT
MAY 15 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  No VORTEX ops
TARGET AREA:  NONE  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Copious moisture and instability remain in place over much 
of TX, with a significant return flow aided by the nocturnal
boundary layer wind max over western TX bringing moisture 
over the surface-based cool air north of the front.  With a
little heating, the boundary should retreat northward and
may act as a focus for some isolated supercells in the TX 
panhandle this evening.  A strong cap will restrain activity
during the daytime hours over most of the ops area, so the
best chances for daytime activity are over high terrain to
the west.  Models show a strengthening of the upper tropo-
spheric winds so wind profiles may be sufficient for super-
cells, especially with the high CAPEs possible today.  The 
big problem is initiation.  If the retreating boundary is
not sufficient, a dryline may well become established in NM
south of the boundary and that may get storms going, as well
as any terrain forcing.

The models seem to agree in bringing out the major short
wave trough currently stationary over central CA and off-
shore.  This seems to be too fast, unless the system is
about to accelerate rapidly.  It seems more likely that the
system will be slower than all the models and we will see a
gradual increase in the winds aloft, slow height falls over
the ops area and gradually increasing potential until the 
system moves out ... right now Wednesday looks like the best
bet but with timing the usual challenge, it will be a day to
day struggle to get everything in phase.  And it appears
nightly MCSs are a good bet, with the mesoscale influences
of the MCSs a daily question mark.

	Doswell/Thompson/Corfidi/Howerton

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   70      60
SEVERE                      60      50
TORNADOES                   20      20
TARGETABLE STORM            50      40

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             240/20   230/28
SUPERCELL                 300/07   290/12

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1830    1800 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1900    1830
1ST TORNADO               1915    1900