VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT FRI 19 MAY 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: NONE TODAY (FRIDAY)   
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

FLOW WL RMN ZONAL OVR OPS AREA THRU SATURDAY.  FLOW XPCD TO
RMN SLGTLY SPLIT...WITH LO-LAT BRANCH CONTG ACRS SRN PTNS OF
AZ/NM AND TX...AND NRN STREAM FM THE NRN RCKYS TO THE CNTRL 
PLNS.  

AT THE SFC...N/S RDG NOW IN PLACE FM THE CNTRL PLNS TO TX
XPCD TO CONT ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION THRU THE PD.  DO NOT 
EXPECT RETURN FLOW MSTR ON WRN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE TO SPRD
MUCH BEYOND W CNTRL TX THIS PD AS RDG HAS PUSHED S INTO NE
MEX AND THE NW GULF.  FARTHER N...SFC FNT ASSOCD WITH WK
NRN BRANCH SHRTWV XPCD STALL UPON REACHING XTRM NW KS/NE CO
LT SATURDAY.

WHILE THE RGN RMNS QUITE DRY ATTM...LO-LVL MSTR XPCD TO
INCRS OVR THE CNTRL HI PLNS DURG THE NXT 36HRS AS (1)
OROGRAPHIC CNVTN DISSIPATES OVR RGN TDA AND (2) WK LO-LVL
CNVGNC PATTERN LINGERS PERSISTS THRU SATURDAY.
COMBINATION OF STG AFTN HTG WITH FCST TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S
...SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE LWR 50S AND 500MB TEMPS ARND
MINUS 15C SHUD YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW MINUS 6 BY LT SATURDAY OVR PARTS OF ERN
CO/WRN KS.. 

MODEL FCST WNDS SHOW 15-20KT LO-LVL JET OVERLAIN BY 
BY 25-30KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW.  RESULTING MODEST VERT SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR SUF FOR ISOLD SUPERCELL DVLPMT OVR WRN KS/
XTRM ERN CO LT SATURDAY AFTN/ERY SATURDAY NGT...WHERE LO-LVL
UPSLOPE COMPONENTS MAY ENHANCE CNVGNC ALG/JUST S OF SFC FNT.

SINCE ACTVTY WL STGLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...DO NOT EXPECT SVR
POTENTIAL TO LINGER VRY LONG INTO THE NGT.  COMBINATION OF
CAPPING INVERSION AND LMTD GULF MSTR RETURN XPCD TO LMT
THE CHANCE FOR SVR ACRS THE SRN HI PLNS...DESPITE PROXIMITY
OF SRN BRANCH UPR JET.

CORFIDI/THOMPSON
       

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   60      80
SEVERE                      10      50
TORNADOES                    2      10
TARGETABLE STORM             0      10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             N/A     28018
SUPERCELL                 N/A     31515

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 N/A      1730 
1ST SEVERE RPT            N/A      1830
1ST TORNADO               N/A      1900