VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 27 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  SE KS, NE OK
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  OUN, TOP, DDC:
18Z & 21Z SNDGS. OMA, LIT, SGF: 18Z SNDGS. ARCHIVE II RQSTD
FM KTLX, KINX, KICT, KTOP, KFWD. 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
SFC LOW EXPCD TO DEEPEN AND MOV NEWD INTO SERN NEB WTH CDFNT
SWD INTO CNTRL OK/NCNTRL TX BY 00Z. DRYLN EXPCD TO PUNCH EWD
AHD OF FNT INTO SERN KS/ERN OK WTH TRPL PT SOMEWHERE IN SERN
KS. UPR JET EXPCD TO PUNCH NEWD ACRS NWRN OK, SERN KS WTH 
SPD MAX OVR AMA AT 12Z EXPCD TO MOV INTO ERN KS. FVBL PSN OF
FCST THERMAL AXIS NR ICT-OKC AND MOIST AXIS MKC-JLN-PRX BY 
00Z INDCS DECENT CONVCTV POTL AHD OF DRYLN/CDFNT. ALTHO HIEST 
CAPES ARE FCST OVR SERN OK/NERN TX, LOWEST LI PROGGED NR SERN
KS INDCG RELATIVELY SHLW UNSTBL LYR THAT AREA. INSTBY AXIS 
SHUD LIFT NWD TWD SERN NEB THIS EVE. ATTM WE EXPC CONVCTV 
INIT NR TRPL PT AND UPR JET VCNTY ERN/SERN KS, WTH ACTVTY 
MOVG NEWD TWD NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB. ACTVTY ALSO EXPCD TO
DVLP SWD ALG/AHD OF DRYLN INTO ERN OK AND PERHAPS NERN TX.
CONCERN FOR TOR POTL FM KS NWD IS BACKING OF UPR FLOW AND 
RESULTANT DECR IN DIR SHEAR. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY BACKING 
OF LL FLOW N OF WMFNT, BUT THAT WUD BE IN SERN NEB/SWRN IA.
FRTHR S, SFC WNDS ALREADY VEERING ACRS WRN/NRN OK, BUT UPR 
FLOW WL RMN MORE WLY ACRS ERN OK/NERN TX. THUS A SECOND AREA 
OF HIER POTL IS NOTED ACRS ERN OK/NERN TX BTWN KS JET AND 
200MB SUBTRPCL JET PROGGED ACRS SRN/ERN TX. PROGGED 500MB 
SPEED MAX ACRS OK THIS AFTN INDCS BETTER LOW/MID LVL SHEAR 
ALSO MAY SHFT SWD INTO NERN OR E CNTRL OK, PERHAPS SWD INTO 
SERN OK AND NERN TX. WITH HIER CAPES FCST IN THIS AREA, POTL
FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT POTL IS BEING KEPT IN MIND. THUS ,
PLANS ARE FOR ARMADA TO POSN INITIALLY NR KS/OK BRDR N
OF BVO WHERE THEY CAN MOV N OR DROP S AS NEEDED. CRNT AND 
FCST CAP STRENGTH SUGGESTS A FAIRLY EARLY SHOW, AT LEAST AS
FAR AS INITIATION.

DAY2 LKLY TO BE A DOWN DAY AS CENTER OF ACTION SHIFTS TO MS/
OH VLYS, BUT NEED TO WATCH FOR DRYLN/CDFNT TRAILING SWWD 
INTO NERN TX AND SERN PTNS OF VORTEX AREA WHERE AMS WL RMN
VERY UNSTBL. ATTM, SHEAR EXPCD TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGNZD
TORNADO/SUPERCELL POTL.

BRANICK/CRISP

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   98      80
SEVERE                      90      50
TORNADOES                   60      10
TARGETABLE STORM            70      10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             24038   24525
SUPERCELL                 26528   28518

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1300    1200 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1345    1315
1ST TORNADO                1445    1500