VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 28 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO TDA AND MON.
TARGET AREA:  OUTSIDE OF VORTEX AREA
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE TDA OR MON  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: AREA THAT HAS OUR ATTN FOR TDA AND
MON IS SW TX - TOO FAR AWAY TO CNSDR FIELD OPS. CDFNT CONTS
TO SAG SWD THRU SW-CNTRL-NERN TX, WHILE DRYLN HAS RETREATED
OVNGT INTO BIG BEND-SJT AREA. VRY JUICY AIR (80 DEWPTS ONSHR
AT BRO) IS POISED S OF FNT AND E OF DRYLN. MRNG UPR AIR DATA
INDCS ANOTR IMPL SWINGING THRU AZ WTH 50-M HGT FALLS AT 500
MB. SVRL SPEED MAXIMA NOTED AT 300 MB ALG WELL-DEFINED JET
AXIS SAN-TUS-AMA-NRN MO-GRB. AT 850 MB, WNDS ACRS SRN TX HV
BACKED IN RESPNS TO AZ IMPL, AND MSTR HAS PULLED BACK INTO 
DRT WHERE DEWPT IS 18C. 

EXPC FNT, DRYLN, AND TRPL PT TO STALL THIS AFTN CLOSE TO
WHERE THEY CRNTLY ARE. 12Z RUC PROGS ABUNDANT INSTBY IN WM 
SECTOR WTH CAPES AOA 4000J/KG NOSING NWWD BTWN DRT AND SJT. 
CAP WL BE STG N OF FNT BUT APRS BREAKABLE ON FCST SNDGS AND 
RUC FCST, WTH CIN FCST 100J/KG OR LESS. MID-LVL DYNAMICS
PROGGED TO RMN N-W OF MAF-SJT AREA, BUT 80-KT UPR SPEED MAX 
PROGGED NEWD INTO OK WL PLACE AREA IN FAVORED RGT ENTRANCE
QUAD. RESULTANT DIVGC ALF ACRS FNT CPLD WITH LL MSTR CONVGC 
PROGGED INVOF SFC BNDRYS, ESPLY NR TRPL PT, SHUD BE ENUF TO
FIRE TSTMS THIS AFTN NR SFC BNDRYS ALG SRN EDGE OF STGR CAP,
MNLY S OF MAF-SJT AREA. ALTHO UPR DRY SLOT HAS MOVD E OF THIS
AREA, WV INDCS ANOTR DRY PLUME ALF S OF CA THAT EXTRAPOLATES
INTO SW TX THIS AFTN. PROGGED CAPES, AND MID-LVL INSTBY AS 
INDCD BY FCST DELTA T OF 20 OR MORE, INDCS STMS WL QUICKLY
GO SVR. RUC ALSO PROGS AN AREA OF FVBL SHEAR WITH HELICITIES 
MAXIMIZED IN 150-200 RANGE ACRS W CNTRL AND SW TX BY LATE 
AFTN/EVE, WITH WKR SHEAR PROGGED FRTHR NE ALG FNT INTO NERN 
TX. EHI OF 4 PROGGED S OF MAF-SJT. THUS WL FCST RATHER HI 
POTL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS N OF BIG BEND, WITH MORE PULSE-
TYPE SVR FRTHR NE ACRS TX INVOF QSTNRY FNT. ALL THIS LKLY TO 
BE S OF VORTEX AREA, OR ALG SRN BRDR OF FCST AREA AT BEST.

OTLK FOR MEMORIAL DAY HILITES SAME GENL AREA. ALTHO UPSLP
DVLPS NWD THRU MUCH OF W TX, LACK OF SLY COMP TO SFC FLOW 
INDCS THAT MAX INSTBY WL BE HARD PRESSED TO SPRD N INTO
W CNTRL TX, SO SW TX AGN WUD BE THE TARGET.  BRANICK/CRISP  

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   60      70
SEVERE                      50      60
TORNADOES                   10      20
TARGETABLE STORM            10      20

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23524   23019
SUPERCELL                 27017   27512

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1500    1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1530    1530
1ST TORNADO               1630    1630