VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 4 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA: N.A. 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DAY 1

SHRTWV ROTATING AROUND UPR TROF IS LIFTING OUT NEWD TWDS
CNTRL PLAINS TDA.  PROGS SUG WINDS FROM 850 MB UPWARD THRU
TROP WL BE RELATIVELY PARALLEL AND WHILE MDTLY STG INITIALLY
...WL BE WKNG WITH TIME. ACTVTY FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LEFT A 
BDRY THAT EXTNDS FM SERN OK TO NRN SPS TO JUST S OF CVS. 
AMS IN WRM SECTOR TO S IS QUITE UNSTBL THIS MORN WITH 15Z 
SFC BASED LI VALUES OF -8 TO -11.  AS SHRTWV LIFTS OUT...
STG/SVR CONVECTION HAS DVLPD IN WRM SECTOR AND THIS MAY DVLP 
NEW OUTFLOW BDRY S OF CURRENT BDRY MAKING FOCUS FOR A TARGET
AREA LESS CERTAIN THAN PAST TWO DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE FCST 
WKNG OF THE LO AND MID LVL FLOW AND THE COMPLICATIONS 
PRESENTED BE THE EARLY ACTVTY IN THE WARM SECTOR..WE FEEL
THERE IS ONLY A MDT THREAT OF A TARGETABLE STORM AND WK TO
MDT THREAT OF TORNADO DVLPMT. 


...JOHNS

DY2
TARGET AREA:WRN OK

SHORTWV TROF MOVES THRU VORTEX RGN DY2 PLACING WESTERN HALF
IN W/NW FLOW AND EASTERN HALF IN SW FLOW.  SUBSIDENCE
IS FORECAST AT MID LVLS ALONG DRYLN AND SHORTWV RIDGING
WILL TEND TO INCR CAP IN WESTERN SXNS DURING THE PD.  
CONVRG ALNG DRYLN IS FX TO BE MODEST AT SFC BUT ONLY WK
AT 850MB WEST OF A 25 KT LLJ IN CNTL OK.  MID LVL FLOW OF
30-35 KTS IS CONFINED TO WRN SXNS AND ALTHOUGH WK VEERS
ALMOST 90 DEG WITH HGT.  UPR FLOW CREATES A BIG PROBLM FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH NOSE OF 70KT JET ONLY ENTERING TX PNDHL BY
00Z AND WITH ERN SXNS IN UPPER LVL WIND MINIMA.  INSTBY FX 
TO BE VERY HIGH WITH SFC DEWPTS NR 70...THETA-E NEAR 350K...
AND RESULTANT CAPES BTN 2500-3000 IN WRN SXNS OF OK WHERE
DEEP TROP LAPSE RATES ARE MOST STEEP.  WIND PROFILES AND
HIGH INSTBY SUGGEST PTL FOR SUPERCELLS OVER WRN SXNS
OF OK...EXTREME ERN TX PHNDL...AND PARTS OF SW KS...HOWEVER
FEEL INITIATION WILL BE A BIG PROBLEM GIVEN INCRG CAP...
LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT...AND ONLY MODEST 0-3KM CONVRG ALNG
DRYLN.  IT IS PSBL THAT CNVRG ALNG EDGE OF STG CAP IN
W-CNTL OK MAY RESULT IN DVLPMT BUT SUCH CNVRG WILL LIKELY
RESULT FROM THE PRESENCE OF BNDYS WHICH ATTM HAVE YET TO
BE CREATED FROM TSTM OUTFLOWS.  MARGINAL SVR TSTMS ARE
MORE LIKELY IN CNTL/ERN KS WHERE CAP IS WEAKER...BUT THESE
TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TARGETABLE.

...JANISH






PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      40
SEVERE                      95      30
TORNADOES                   30      30
TARGETABLE STORM            60      10

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             220/30   270/23
SUPERCELL                 240/25   300/18

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1130    1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1130    1630
1ST TORNADO                1400    1730