VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 5 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: PSBL LMTD GO
TARGET AREA: PTNS NW TX BOUNDED BY AMA 20 S LTS SPS 80 S CDS
40 SSE LBBL LBB 70 NW LBB AMA 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DAY 1

PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF WL BE MOVG EWD TO CNTRL KS/ERN OK RGN 
DURG DAY AS SECONDARY SHRTWV TROF MOVS ESEWD INTO NWRN TX.
UPR FLOW BEHIND PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF WL BECOME NWLY ENHANCING
HODOGRAPHS OVR NWRN TX.  SLY LO LVL FLOW NOT FCST TO BE VERY
STG...BUT STRONGLY TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING MID AND 
UPR LVL FLOW SUG SUPERCELL DVLPMT LKLY FOR ANY ACTVTY THAT 
DOES FORM.   INSTBLY SHOULD BE QUITE STG.  PRIND STG TSTM DVLPMT
WL OCCUR ALG ACTVTY BDRY THAT CURRENTLY LIES FROM JUST S OF 
SPS TO SW OF AMA.  DRY LN IS EXPCD TO MOV/MIX OUT EWD TO NR
AMA/LBB LN BY MID AFTN.  AREA OF FIRST DVLPMT LKLY TO BE NR
TRIPLE POINT ABOUT 18Z.  OTHER CELLS MAY DVLP EWD ALG ACTVTY
BDRY AND FOR A SHORT DISTANCE DOWN DRY LN FROM TRIPLE POINT.
THOSE SUPERCELLS THAT DVLP SHOULD MOV SEWD THRU TARGET AREA
DURG AFTN AND EARLY EVE HRS.

...JOHNS 

DAY 2

SIG RIDGING IS EXPEXTED TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS TUE AS A VIGOUROUS UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE NW U.S. 
DRYLN IS FCST TO RMN OVR THE FORECAST AREA FM W CNTRL KS
SWD ACRS WRN OK INTO NW TX. BY MID AFTN...EXTRM INSTBY
IS EXPECTED AHD OF DRYLN WITH CAPES AOA 4000 J/KG. LOW-MID
LVL WNDS ARE PROGD TO BE MUCH WKR THAN TDA...HOWEVER...AND
THIS WL LIMIT TOR POTENTIAL. BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE
VRY STG CAP FCST ACRS THE AREA. CNVTV INHIBITION NR 200 J/KG
MAY PREVENT TSTM DVLPMT ALTOGETHER. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT 
THE ONLY AREA WHERE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS
ACRS N CNTRL KS WHERE STGST WINDS AND WKST CAP ARE XPCD. 
HOWEVER...MOST SVR ACTVTY WL LKLY RMN WELL N OF FORECAST 
AREA. 

...VESCIO


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      50
SEVERE                      98      30 
TORNADOES                   50      10
TARGETABLE STORM            80      20 

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             28025   25020
SUPERCELL                 31020   28015

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1300   1600 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1400   1730
1ST TORNADO               1600   1830