VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUN 6 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: STG CAP EXPCD TDA AS UPR RDG MOVS
OVR AREA. STG INSTBY FCST WITH CAPES 3-4000 J/KG AND LIS OF
-8 TO -10 INVOF MOIST AXIS CNTRL OK, BUT FORCING EXPD TO BE
VRY LIMITED AND NOT SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP. 

DAY 2 PRESENTS A DILEMMA. ATTM WE THINK NEW ETA IS IN ERROR
KEEPING SFC FNTL ZN NR KS/NE BRDR, AND PREFER A POSN FRTHR S
OVR W CNTRL OR SWRN KS WED AFTN/EVE. THIS WUD SET UP A TRPL
POINT, AND LKLY A SFC LOW, NR DDC-GAG-LBL AREA. EXPC INSTBY
TO BE ADEQUATE IN THIS AREA AS HI-DEWPT AIR CONTS NWD INTO
AREA, UNIMPEDED BY CONVCTN TDA AND TNGT. MDLS, ESPLY AVN, 
INDC MOIST AXIS WRAPPING WWD N OF SFC FNT INTO WRN KS AND 
ERN CO, PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO INSTBY IN AN AREA WHERE
BACKED LL WNDS WL MAKE FOR A BETTER SHEAR PROFILE JUST N OF
SFC FNT. NEG FACTORS ARE LACK OF UPR SUPPORT, POSN OF UPR 
JET AXIS WELL TO THE W OVR CO, AND PROBABLE CAP AGAIN. WKR
CAP AND BETTER SHEAR WL BE FRTHR N IN KS, BUT CONCERN IS 
THAT THIS AREA WL BE TOO STBL. BEST OF ALL WORLDS - SHEAR,
INSTBY, FORCING, AND BREAKABLE CAP - EXPCD TO BE NR AND JUST
N OF SFC FNT INVOF SWRN THRU CNTRL KS. THIS AREA WUD BE
REACHABLE BY VORTEX FIELD TEAMS WITH A 10AM DEPARTURE TMRW,
THUS DECISION WAS MADE TO STAY HERE TDA AND RE-EVALUATE THE 
POTL ON WED. MORE CHCS ADVERTIZED FOR LTR IN WK. BRANICK/
VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      95
SEVERE                      20      60
TORNADOES                    5      20
TARGETABLE STORM             5      30

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   23026
SUPERCELL                 -----   26019

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   1530
1ST TORNADO               -----   1630