VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT June 12, 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: FIELD PROGRAM HAS ENDED
TARGET AREA:   NONE 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DAY 1

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT SFC EXTNDS N/S THRU AREA.  ONLY
MARGINAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...MOSTLY IN WRN TX. WITH RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT...EXCPT ANY TSTM DVLPMT WITH MSTR THAT IS 
PRESENT TO BE QUITE LOW.

...JOHNS

DAY 2

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE AREA THRU DAY 2, HOWEVER A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL 
START TO AFFECT THE NW PART OF THE VORTEX95 AREA OF 
INTEREST.   ETA IS INDICATING 8 G/KG AT 850MB ON 
14/00UTC IN W. KANSAS WITH SW WINDS OF 25KTS.  AT 500MB
WINDS WILL BE FROM NNW AT 40-45KTS BUT POS. VORT FIELD
IS TOO FAR NORTH TO HELP CHANCES FOR TSTMS DVLPMT.  CHANCE
FOR TSTMS INCREASES ON DAY TWO PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF 
INCR LVL MSTR AND INCREASED SFC HEATING.  CHANCE FOR SVR
CONVECTION ALMOST NIL.

...CRISP


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   05      10
SEVERE                      01      01
TORNADOES                   00      00
TARGETABLE STORM            00      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   -----
SUPERCELL                 -----   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----