VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT June 14 1995 


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  FIELD OPERATIONS HAVE ENDED
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DAY 1

UPR RIDGE EXTENDS N/S THRU HIGH PLAINS AND IS EXPCD
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD DURG PD.  LO LVL MSTR HAS INCRD DURG
PAST 24 HR AND MDT INSTBY IS LKLY TO BE ATTAINED OVR MUCH 
STUDY REGION.  HOWEVER, MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL PTNS AREA
LKLY TO RMN CAPPED.  FOR ANY TSTMS THAT DO DVLP IN WRN
TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...WK MID AND UPR LVL FLOW SUG
PROBABILIYTY OF SUPERCELL DVLPMT EXTREMELY LOW.  FARTHER
E IN LO LVL WARM ADVECTION BACK OF OF MCC DVLPMT IS PSBL
ON E SIDE OF RIDGE.  HOWEVER...CHCS OF SUPERCELL DVLPMT
IN THIS AREA ALSO LOW.

...JOHNS

DAY 2

UPR RIDGE WL DOMINATE RGN WITH WK MID AND UPR LVL FLOW
LKLY TO PRECLUDE ANY SUPERCELL DVLPMT.

...JOHNS 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   80      70
SEVERE                      20      10
TORNADOES                   10      05
TARGETABLE STORM            02      00

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   -----
SUPERCELL                 -----   -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   -----
1ST TORNADO               -----   -----