DATE: 5/13/98 STATUS: GO (12:30 PM departure) EQUIPMENT STATUS: Mobile Mesonets: Finished. FC vehicle has a faulty "Low Oil Level" indicator which will be repaired during the next down period. DOWS: Ready. Josh arrives at OKC during noon hour. UMASS Radar: down indefinitely Rockets: NOT READY Turtles: operational RALPH: operational NOAA P-3: Arrives this weekend SYNOPSIS: Strong upper trof over W US moving eastward. The Plains are presently under an upper ridge with weak flow aloft. Low-level Gulf moisture is increasing. DAY 1 FORECAST: As the upper systems progress eastward, mid-tropospheric flow increases to levels supportive of supercells in the High Plains. Upper-tropopsheric storm-relative flow will be quite weak. Therefore, supercells are expected to be HP if they form. Strong pressure falls in eastern CO will lead to increasing SSE-SE surface winds in the High Plains from SW KS to the TX South Plains, and the advection of higher dewpoints westward. CAPE will be high (> 2500 J/kg) and CIN will be reduced to small values by evening. We expect 50-65% probability of convection in the target area (NE TX Panhandle to DDC). We expect a 40% conditional probability of supercells given convection (HP type). Owing to the weak upper flow but decent low-level shear, we expect brief low-level mesocyclone formation, but any tornadoes should be short-lived followed by big gushes of rainy downdraft. Poetic. We estimate the conditional probability of tornadoes given supercells at 10-20%. Our tentative target: the escarpment in the NE TX Panhandle where terrain uplift will be best. Erik's pick: Spearman Paul's pick: Booker DAY 2 FORECAST: We have not yet seen numerical guidance valid for tomorrow evening. However, it appears that strong, difluent upper flow will spread across the plains tomorrow, with a sharp dryline from W KS to W OK to SW TX. CAPE will be large. We expect targetable dryline supercells. The best turning in the wind profile should be to our southwest. Operations are expected. DAY n FORECAST: (Friday) The first shortwave will be lifting NE toward the Great Lakes with a new shortwave dropping into the W US trof. A stalling front may be in the southern/central Plains with continuing adequate flow aloft for supercells. Operations are possible. MISCELLANEOUS: 1. TRAVEL ORDERS: If you gave your address and SSN to Kelly Lynn, I have your travel orders and will give them to you. If you haven't given this info to Kelly (and hence I have no travel orders), you must do so IMMEDIATELY. If you don't have travel orders by departure time, you cannot go. 2. CAM team members: See David Blanchard for video documentation forms. Erik, Paul, Jerry, with David Dowell