DATE: 5/14/98
STATUS: go...arrive at 1130, departure at 1145.

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: CAM1 in Sayre with a blown transmission.  A 
replacement vehicle is being sought.
  DOWS:  In Woodward.  Status unknown.
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  Under development
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  Arrives Saturday

SYNOPSIS:  Strong shortwave trof in the Rockies moving eastward across 
the Central Plains tonight.  Good moisture and smoke in place.



DAY 1 FORECAST:  First the easy part... a squall line will form late this 
evening in the High Plains and move eastward across N TX, OK and KS 
during the night.  This will happen as southerly flow through the depth 
of the tropopshere, combined with strong lifting, causes a line of 
convection to form.

The harder part is to find a way for supercells to form in advance of 
this system.  We think it can occur this way:  convergence will persist 
along the dryline near the eastern edge of the Caprock in W TX.  During 
the afternoon, southeasterly flow will increase in the eastern part of W 
TX, increasing the convergence and advecting high potential buoyancy air 
onto the Caprock as the dryline slowly retreats.  Inhibition will be weak 
(convection temperatures of 78-86 F with ~14 g/kg).  Supercells may form 
along the dryline between roughly 3-6 PM, with the area northwest of CDS 
to LBB being favored (most westerly component in the upper trop giving 
the most favorable deep shear).  Toward sunset, upper flow will back and 
strengthen significantly, causing seeding effects to send the storms 
toward HP and eventually toward a solid line of convection.

Probabilities: convection in W TX before 7 PM: 55-65%, conditional prob 
of supercell given convection 65-75%; conditional probability of >F1 
tornado given supercell: 12-20%.


DAY 2 FORECAST:

Operations are possible.  As tonight's shortwave lifts northward with the 
attendant surface low, upper flow becomes westerly over the southern 
Plains and the surface front stalls.  So shear and CAPE may be more 
favorable tomorrow than today.


DAY n FORECAST:

Good pattern for MCS's in the S. Plains, supercells in the High Plains of 
CO and the northern Plains.  We will weigh options for operations in that 
latter area in a few days.



MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  I badly need an assistant FC who can commit to all the remaining 
missions this year.  Any volunteers????