SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/16/98
STATUS:  NO-GO (*** SEE MISC AT BOTTOM REGARDING TOMORROW ***)

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: CAM1 will be replaced on Monday.  All other systems OK.
  DOWS:  Ready.
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: Virtual
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  Arrives today

SYNOPSIS:
Strong ridge over southern Plains.  Lee troughing underway, with 
low-level moisture returning via the Great Western Circuit.


DAY 1 FORECAST:
Low-level moisture and deep shear is inadequate for supercells in 
targetable regions.


DAY 2 FORECAST:
Shear will be adequate in KS as a jet max moves out of the central 
Rockies and low-level flow strengthens in response.  Low-level moisture 
may increase to adequate levels.  Operations are possible, and an early 
departure _may_ be required.


DAY n FORECAST:
We have two quite different model solutions to work off of.  The MRF and 
Euro models show a high-amplitude upper ridge leading to subsidence and 
very weak upper flow over the southern and central Plains.  The NOGAPS 
model persists (past four runs) in forecasting a split in the subtropical 
jet which is very strong across the Pacific.  One branch heads SE toward 
the Caribbean with another into the central Plains by midweek.  It also 
forecasts persistent high pressure in the midwest and an associated 
stationary front across KS in the middle of the week, with intense 
cyclogenesis in the central High Plains midweek.  If true, we would have 
several days of supercells in the central Plains beginning roughly Mon or 
Tue, spreading southward into W TX later in the week.

However, the MRF shows no significant split and the STJ turns SE toward 
the Caribbean.  Last year, we found the NOGAPS upper flow prog to be a 
better prog.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  CHECK FOR THE STATUS MESSAGE AT *** 9 AM *** on SUNDAY MORNING.  We 
would expect a 10 AM departure IF we operate.  We will CONSIDER a 
multi-day road trip beginning tomorrow (SUNDAY).

Rasmussen/Markowski/Askelson