SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE DATE: 5/18/98 STATUS: NO-GO EQUIPMENT STATUS: Mobile Mesonets: CAM1 being repaired today DOWS: Hard down for repairs UMASS Radar: down indefinitely Rockets: Strobe kits being ordered today Turtles: operational RALPH: operational NOAA P-3: operational SYNOPSIS: Strong upper ridge over the Southern Plains. Adequate upper flow exists at the periphery of the ridge over the High Plains from the TX Panhandle through Nebraska. However, lower-tropospheric flow has weakened and become more southerly, and lower-tropospheric shear no longer will support supercells. DAY 1 FORECAST: No targetable supercells expected. Non-supercell convection may develop in the High Plains. DAY 2 FORECAST: An E-W front with a surface low in Nebraska may provide favorable low-level shear and convergence for supercell formation in central Nebraska. This area is being evaluated for possible operations. DAY n FORECAST: The front should stall somewhere in N KS allowing moisture to pool and advect westward. If this occurs, large CAPE will develop in the high terrain of W Nebraska and NE CO and SE WY, with very favorable shear profiles for supercells Wed-Thur (at least). NOGAPS shows the subtropical jet moving NE into the Southern Plains toward next weekend which, if correct, would result in conditions supportive of supercells closer to home. The MRF does not show this evolution, but instead weakens upper flow all across the US. MISCELLANEOUS: 1. *** IMPORTANT *** Tomorrow's status message will be issued at 8:30 AM for a possible departure at 9:15 AM. This would be an overnight (likely 2-night trip). YOU MUST FIND A CAPABLE SUBSTITUTE IF YOU ARE NOT WILLING TO GO ON THIS MULTI-DAY TRIP! 2. We had marvelous data collection on the dryline yesterday. Thanks to all who helped out. 3. Drivers... we depart with full tanks of gas. 4. Please move your mobile mesonet data into subdirectories at the end of each mission. Talk to David Blanchard about this. 5. The week of 24 May is "pre-TIMEX" week, and you can expect that we may go to the field to do boundary studies even if no supercells are forecast. Please help us with this important work.