SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE DATE: 5/19/98 STATUS: GO...915 DEPARTURE (MULTI-OVERNIGHT) EQUIPMENT STATUS: Mobile Mesonets: CAM2 is ready at the barn and should be picked up by one of the team members. All other vehicles are ready. DOWS: in Salina UMASS Radar: down indefinitely Rockets: not operational Turtles: operational RALPH: operational NOAA P-3: operational SYNOPSIS: Front near I-70 is forecast by models to retreat slowly northward today. Moisture pooling and modest westward moisture advection should allow dewpts to rise into at least the low 60s in central NE by afternoon. Front should initiate convection between 21 and 00Z. CAPE and shear should be adequate for supercells in NE. DAY 1 FORECAST: Best combination of CAPE, shear, and least inhibition expected near GRI late this afternoon. More likely initiation will be in the High Plains, but lack of CAPE and relatively dry low levels may reduce tornado probability. Our target is a 100 mi diameter circle centered just SW of GRI, where we have a probability of thunder of 40-65%, conditional of supercell given thunder 60-90%, and conditional of tornado given supercell 20-30%. DAY 2 FORECAST: Moisture will pool along the front today, and advection will bring adequate low-level moisture westward toward higher terrain. The front and advection may be stronger tomorrow owing to overnight convection. The target area will be SW NE, far NW KS, NE CO, or SE WY. DAY n FORECAST: NOGAPS jet prog is very bullish for the High Plains on Thur. Expect a dryline with supercell convection to become the focus toward Thur/Fri, with the southern Plains of OK/TX coming under supercell threat this weekend. We may be operating for a number of days. Bring quarters for the coin laundries. We must point out that the MRF and the NOGAPS are worlds apart on the upper trop prog for the next 7 days. The NOGAPS apparently allows the western US upper trof to "pick up" part of the flow of the subtrop jet, while the MRF maintains almost all of this jet across Mexico. If the MRF is correct, the long-range will be considerably less interesting. If you blend the progs, we will probably have _adequate_ upper flow for supercells. MISCELLANEOUS: 1. Team members should give thought to what may be required for multi-day work, such as batteries, rechargers, etc. 2. No parking of experiment vehicles in the main NSSL parking lot... use the gravel lot to the south of the lab. 3. YOU MUST HAVE TRAVEL ORDERS TO GO ON THIS MISSION!!! SEE KELLY LYNN IMMEDIATELY IF YOU DO NOT!!!