SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/20/98
STATUS:  GO (depart from Sidney NE midday... overnight at least once more)

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets:  All operating normally.
  DOWS:  In Sidney
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: Not available
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3: unknown 

SYNOPSIS:

Upper ridge continues in the Plains.  Upslope flow will continue in the High
Plains of NE CO, SW NE, and E WY today and tomorrow.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

We expect SE upslope flow to initiate storms in the High Plains of NE CO,
SW NE, E WY, and the NE Panhandle today.  The best combination of shear and
CAPE is progged for the AKO CO area this afternoon.  This is our initial
target.  SE surface winds (E component of 10-15 kt) with SW mid-level flow
of 30-40 kt, and SW upper trop flow of 60-70 kt will support supercells.
Surface humidities may be too low for significant tornadoes (owing to outflow
strength, lack of low-level stretching, or combinations of these [and other?]
problems.

DAY 2 FORECAST:

We expect increased tornadic supercell potential along the warm front from
a surface low east of DEN to N KS/ S NE.

DAY n FORECAST:

Friday: strong SW jet and cyclogenesis will support supercells in W KS.



MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Excellent intercept in the Sidney area yesterday evening.  The supercell
produced hail to 3" diameter, a great RFD with an anticyclone extending
to the surface, but no strong low-level cyclone.  Excellent MM and
photography data were colected.  Dual-DOW data were not collected on this
storm.