SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/21/98
STATUS:  GO (departing Ft. Morgan 11 AM CDT)

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: All operational
  DOWS: In Julesburg CO
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: Nope
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  Status unknown

SYNOPSIS:

W. US upper trof now moving eastward, with strong upper-tropospheric jet 
moving N through E CO today.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

Surface boundary from KS/NE boarder westward to near SNY and into E WY 
will persist today.  Cyclongenesis will occur near the left front nose of 
the approaching jet max (in far NE CO).  Wind profiles will favor 
supercells near the surface boundary (N side).  Initiation is expected 
owing to a combination of upslope and large-scale lift in the southern 
part of the NE Panhandle by mid-afternoon, with storms quickly becoming 
supercellular.  One or two supercells may produce strong tornadoes near 
the boundary.  ETA progged winds suggest CL type storms that move ENE 
20-25 kt as mature supercells.  Target area: SNY-LBF-MCK-IML-SNY.  
Probabilities: convection-75-90%, conditional supercells given convection: 
80-100%, conditional probability tornado given supercell: 15-60% (Straka 
15, Rasmussen 50, Markowski 60).

DAY 2 FORECAST:

Same setup, 250 miles further east.


DAY n FORECAST:

A jet that has no end.  We will abandon the nose of the jet as it heads 
into Wisconsin on Sat, and start focusing on dryline/front intersection 
below the jet for the remainder of May.  Donations will be accepted.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Excellent mobile mesonet and photography data collected once again on 
Wed 5/20.  A supercell occurred as forecast near AKO CO.  Data were collected 
for 2-3 hours in all parts of the RFD.  This storm produced 
2.5" hail and 3-m wind gusts to 53 kt accompanied by a 6 C temperature
rise under the RFD.  A second supercell's RFD was sampled after sunset.
DOW data were not obtained on these supercells.

Erik, Jerry