SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/23/98
STATUS:  STRANGE GO (11:45 AM departure) (see below)

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: operational
  DOWS: in NE KS
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: not operational
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS:

Weak low in SC KS will move ENE and fill today.  Warm advection and 
convergence along the warm front _may_ lead to severe storms in N MO and 
perhaps S IA, and possible SE KS and W MO if convergence is strong 
enough.  It's hard to see how this scenario will play out given the way 
things happened yesterday.

Moist low-level air has been pooling behind the front for two days, and 
is now moving southward into the TX Panhandle and OK.  The SAMEX MM5 10 
km run from last night is the only model to adequately depict this 
morning's surface pattern.  It shows winds in the TX Panhandle becoming 
E'ly by evening, with a tongue of higher dewpoints and CAPE and some 
precip by evening in the NW TX Panhandle.  We believe an isolated 
supercell may occur in that region.

The third region of concern is NW TX.  Cold advection at 700, SAMEX MM5 
10 km precip forecast, strong shear, and convergence along the dryline 
suggest the possibility of isolated supercells from CDS/SPS SSWward.


DAY 1 FORECAST:

NW TX Panhandle. Prob of convection: 30-35%.  Cond prob supercell: 
40-60%.  Cond prob tornado: 20-25%.

NW TX:  Prob of convection: 25-30%.  Cond prob supercell: 35-60%.  Cond 
prob tornado: 10-20%.


DAY 2 FORECAST:

ETA sux.  But Jet prog from NOGAPS shows good surge of flow aloft over 
our area tomorrow through Mon.  Chances are good somewhere in OK/ N TX 
for supercells tomorrow.


DAY n FORECAST:

Gradually diminishing flow aloft will end intercept chances until the end 
of the month.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Label all diskettes clearly and turn them in to DOB ASAP.

2.  Label all videocassettes clearly with date/time/location and turn 
them in to DOB ASAP.  Unlabelled tapes are not ACCEPTABLE.

3.  Put all of your receipts (all but food) in a large envelope (one per 
person), with 
your name, address, and SSN clearly labeled on the outside.  Turn them in 
to Jerry Straka ASAP.

4.  TODAY::::  ALL VOLUNTEER MISSION.  IF YOU ARE TIRED OR DON'T LIKE THE 
CHANCES, YOU SHOULD FEEL FREE TO STAY HOME TODAY.  WE WILL ASSEMBLE TEAMS 
OUT OF THE GROUP OF VOLUNTEER PARTICIPANTS WHO ARRIVE AT NSSL.  THANK YOU.

5.  TOMORROW.  REGULAR MISSION.