SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/25/98
STATUS: NO-GO

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: P1 MM system needs repairs; FC RH sensor malfunctioning.
  DOWS:  Both systems broken; hard down.
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: No.
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  Unknown

SYNOPSIS:

Upper flow too weak to support supercells; mid-tropospheric warming has 
ruined the good deep lapse rates of the last week.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

Any supercells in the central/southern Plains will be short-lived low-level 
spinups which quickly become HP in character and then lose supercell 
character entirely.  These storms will be most likely in N TX near the 
old outflow boundary.  We do not consider these to be targetable storms.  
Probability of convection in N TX / S OK this afternoon/evening: 50-70%.  
Cond prob of targetable supercells: 5-20%.  Conditional probability of 
tornadoes given supercells: 3-5%.

DAY 2 FORECAST:

Upper flow is likely to remain too weak for targetable supercells.  
However, a lee trof/dryline should form through the High Plains.  The ETA 
progs a weak shortwave in W TX toward evening with 500 mb flow increasing 
to over 40 kt.  Operations are possible though unlikely due to the 
progged weakness in upper tropospheric flow and the overall unreliability 
of the ETA this spring.

DAY n FORECAST:

NOGAPS continues the more-or-less zonal pattern (flow from ~250 in the 
upper half of troposphere) through the period.  It progs a major jet (> 
130 kt at 200 mb) entering the Plains on Friday.  It progs a strong 
shortwave into the Central Plains on Saturday.  Thus we expect operations 
to resume late this week.  The MRF once again builds the upper ridge over 
the Plains.  This forecast has failed to verify for the past two weeks. 


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Please download your laptops to diskettes during the upcoming quiet 
period.  See David for more diskettes (David see Mac).

2.  Thank you everyone for the hard work over the last week.   We did a 
good job sampling four non-tornadic supercells.  In addition, we raised 
Marko's no-tornado mileage to 11,800 miles!!!

3.  Yesterday, subVORTEX intercepted a non-tornadic supercell (3" hail) 
between Medicine Lodge and Anthony KS.  The storm was well sampled by the 
mobile mesonets.  DOW radars caught a similar storm in SW KS.

4.  Receipts to Jerry Straka in envelopes labeled with your name, 
address, and SSN.  It would be wise to turn in photocopies instead of 
originals.