SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/26/98
STATUS: NO-GO

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: P1, FC needing equipment repairs
  DOWS:  Unknown
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: No
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  Down

SYNOPSIS:

Upper flow continues to weaken today.  Deep lapse rates are much poorer 
than previous days.  We do note that the EML has reappeared at MAF and 
DRT, and that strong upper trop flow may be occurring in Mexico and just 
now increasing along the Rio Grande.  So we suspect that supercells may 
occur today in SW TX, roughly from MAF-ABI-SJT-DRT-P07-MAF.  This area 
will not be targeted because we need to spend today working on equipment 
and data quality checks.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

No supercells targetable.  For the region outlined above, the probability 
of convection is 65%, conditional probability of supercells 60%, 
conditional probability of tornadoes 10%.

DAY 2 FORECAST:

Operations very unlikely owing to lack of shear.


DAY n FORECAST:

NOGAPS indicates strong flow entering the High Plains on Friday; MRF 
timing is closer to Saturday.  The two solutions have flip-flopped, with 
the MRF now showing ongoing low heights and strong flow across the 
southern Plains during the 1 June- 4 June period, with the NOGAPS showing 
the strong flow retreating north to the northern Plains after 2 June, and 
indications of a blocking pattern at our latitude with a cutoff west of 
California and a wicked ridge across the southern Plains.  At this time, 
we anticipate the next operations day to be Friday, with a period of 2-4 
days of supercell potential.  This may be the last period of operations 
this spring.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  All teams MUST turn in labeled diskettes and videotapes today.  This 
will enable us to do quality assurance tests prior to the next operations 
period.

2.  Alnado is forbidden to chase.