SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 5/29/98
STATUS: GO...TARGET: SW NEBRASKA

EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets: C1 being repaired (hygrometer down)
  DOWS: unknown
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets: not operational
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  not operational

SYNOPSIS:

Upper anticyclone with very warm temperatures being established over the 
southern Plains.  Overnight MCS has removed high theta-e airmass from the 
central Plains, but it is beginning to recover, with strong moisture 
advection in central KS.  Rapidly strengthening upper flow will commence 
this evening. 


DAY 1 FORECAST:

The situation is very unclear this morning.  High theta-e air is in 
Oklahoma and south-central KS.  Strong SE winds should advect this toward 
NW KS and SW NE.  We are concerned that the leading edge will mix out as 
it advances, and if the high theta-e air does not move northward into NE, 
where mid-level temperatures are much cooler, initiation may not occur.  
Initiation will likely occur in the very high terrain of E WY and NE CO, 
but CAPE will not be very large there.  An additional constraint is that 
deep shear favoring supercells is confined to latitudes north of 40 N.  
Our target area is AKO-GLD-HLC-MCK-LBF-SNY-AKO.  In this target area, we 
estimate these probabilities: initiation 20-40%; conditional probability 
of a supercell 80%; conditional probability of a tornado given supercell 
5-10%.

DAY 2 FORECAST:

Now it really gets toughh.  NOGAPS phases falling heights in the Midwest 
with the jet coming through the western states, causing the favorable 
left front dynamics to shift from E CO to IA/MN in 12 hours.  MRF does 
not phase, and has the upper jet turning anticyclonically around the 
upper high, with the favorable left-front dynamics over NE KS.  So we are 
guessing that supercells may occur between roughly EMP KS and S MN.  We 
will probably return to central NE tonight to play whatever region 
becomes targetable, including IA.

DAY n FORECAST:

Very unclear.  The best/only plays will be in the High Plains where 
moisture returns on the north side of any quasi-stationary front that 
sets up under the strong upper flow.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Ravenna