SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE:  6/1/98
STATUS:  NO-GO
 
EQUIPMENT STATUS:

  Mobile Mesonets:  FC needs new RH sensor
  DOWS: unknown
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  not operational 
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS:

Upper ridge persists over Plains with fast flow aloft in Central Plains.  
Front has become stationary near the Red River.  


DAY 1 FORECAST:

East winds over OK may advect mid 60s dew points westward onto the higher 
terrain of the TX Panhandle.  Vertical shear supports supercells; 
however, middle and upper tropospheric temperatures are near 
climatologically extreme warmth (+13 to +15 C at 700 mb, -4 to -6 C at 
500 mb, 0 C at 500 mb at DRT, -33 C at 300 mb); thus, CAPE will be 
scarce and initiation probably not possible.  Operations will not be 
conducted.


DAY 2 FORECAST:

Height falls at 500 mb on the order of 30 m are progged to occur on 
the Texas High Plains by tomorrow evening as central US upper ridge 
amplitude decreases slightly.  Eta places surface low in SE CO by 
tomorrow evening beneath vertical shear supportive of supercells, however 
CAPE may still be scarce and upslope flow appears to be weak at best.  
Thus, operations tomorrow are probably not likely, however a hard down 
has not been declared.


DAY n FORECAST:

By Wednesday, a strong stationary front will be in KS, with low pressure 
in W KS.  Gradual height falls will reduce CIN along and north of the 
stationary front.  A dryline will extend from the low southward into W TX 
or E NM, but warm temperatures aloft should prevent convection on the 
dryline. It is also likely that upslope in the High Plains of E CO will 
lead to supercells there (Alnado says Kit Carson and Baca counties).  Expect 
operations (SLIGHT chance of a Tue PM departure for an overnight stay in 
SW KS; more likely an early Wed AM departure).  

On Thursday, cooling aloft may allow limited coverage of 
convection along the dryline near the low, and more extensive convection 
along or north of the stationary front.  This cooling is associated with 
a fairly strong shortwave in the southern stream, and significant severe 
weather may occur in W TX / KS/ NW OK.  Expect operations.

On Friday, the front is progged 
to move into TX, and may be too far away for operations.  Beyond.... MRF 
develops a DEEP trof over the E US, keeping the Plains in near-winter 
chill (OK.. an exaggeration).  NOGAPS develops a strong zonal current 
across our latitudes, so more storms may occur toward Sunday.  


MISCELLANEOUS: