SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE 

DATE: 6/2/98 (Third anniversary of Dimmitt/Friona)  
STATUS:  NO-GO

EQUIPMENT STATUS: 
  Mobile Mesonets: FC needs new RH sensor  
  DOWS: Ready
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  uh-uh
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  unknown

SYNOPSIS: 

Climatologically extreme ridge persists over the Southern Plains.  
Temperatures will exceed 100 over a large area today, with temperatures 
over 110 expected across SW OK and NW TX.  A very strong surface cold 
front is in the central Plains, with snow being reported in N. Dakota.  
You explain it.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

CIN is much too strong for convection today in the southern or central 
Plains.  No storms expected.

DAY 2 FORECAST:

Heights begin to fall on Wednesday as the West Coast short wave begins to 
eject eastward.  We see one scenario for possible convection.  If the 
cold front slows/stalls across N OK, low-level moisture may pool and 
advect NW toward the high terrain of SE CO.  This scenario is more common 
with shallow, stalled fronts than advancing strong fronts such as the one 
now in the Plains.  It is very doubtful if we can get the necessary 
low-level theta-e advected to a location where CIN is minimal (cooler 
conditions aloft).  ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS CAN HAPPEN, WE 
REQUEST YOU TO CHECK THE STATUS MESSAGE BY 8:15 AM WED MORNING FOR A 
POSSIBLE 9 AM DEPARTURE.

DAY n FORECAST:

The West Coast shortwave trof will be ejecting into the Plains on 
Thursday.  NOGAPS suggests there will be an associated jetlet, and in 
response the surface low deepens near DDC.  MRF does not have the jetlet, 
and right-rear jet dynamics cause the low to deepen near CSM.  The latter 
is more likely in any case because it seems that the front will likely be 
into at least central or southern OK by Thursday.  If heights fall at low 
enough latitudes, surface winds may remain backed in OK and we MAY be 
able to retain large enough theta-e to overcome the cap.  If the 
shortwave ejects more to the north, low-level winds will likely veer, and 
no moisture will be available for convection with this system.  Stay tuned.

This weekend, long-range progs are in agreement that a new wave will be 
advancing toward the Plains, with vigorous low-level moisture return and 
possible dryline storms by Sunday in West Texas.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  Lazbuddie