SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE DATE: 6/4/98 STATUS: GO...12:30 DEPARTURE EQUIPMENT STATUS: Mobile Mesonets: FC will not be used today...P1-3 and C1 or 2 will be used DOWS: hard down today UMASS Radar: down indefinitely Rockets: not operational Turtles: operational RALPH: operational NOAA P-3: operational...6 pm take-off SYNOPSIS: Front has stalled between OUN and ADM. 12Z RUC forecasts surface low, near MAF at 14Z, to move NEward toward ABI and SE of SPS by evening in right rear quad of departing jet. DAY 1 FORECAST: We will depart at 1230 for north or northwest TX, depending on surface evolution during next few hours. Models suggest CAPE will be large (~3500-4000 J/kg) just south of front, with deep-layer shear supportive of supercells. We suspect convection may be initiated along most of front toward evening as midlevel (~700 mb) cooling occurs due to advection/upward motion. Best option will probably be to play westernmost storm due to possible seeding effects. Winds at the sfc will likely back to around 160 degrees ahead of surface low. Negative for today will be high LFC and high LCL (large T-Td spreads). Otherwise, wind profiles support classic supercells for non-seeded updrafts. An MCS is likely tonight along or north of the front. Probability of initiation: 65% Conditional probability of supercells: 70-80% Conditional probability of tornadoes: 5-12% DAY 2 FORECAST: Operations are not expected, but a hard down has not been declared. DAY n FORECAST: If there's a germ of truth in the NOGAPS, there will be many excellent dryline days next week, possibly beginning as early as Sunday. Moisture return will be about as strong as it can be (probably 30-40 kt LLJ day after day and 20-25 kt sfc current), beneath westerly upper flow of about 100 kts for days. Friday and Sat will probably be down, but rest up for a likely extended trip next week. MISCELLANEOUS: 1. Erik Rasmussen is shoveling snow in Boulder today, and will assume the role of nowcaster for the duration of the experiment (Blanchard and Markowski are betting Rasmussen won't be able to avoid temptation of returning if NOGAPS verifies next week). 2. Paul Markowski will continue to issue the morning status messages at 10:30 AM unless otherwise posted. 3. The field teams will be reconstituted as follows: PROBE1: Markowski (driver), Davies-Jones (leader), Jason Lynn PROBE2: Straka (leader), Herndon (driver), assistant PROBE3: Blanchard (leader), Miller (driver), assistant CAM1: Smith/Stumpf (driver), Biddle (photographer), assistant CAM2: Depending on staffing today Assistants: Scharfenburg, Burke, Askelson, Schneider, Witt, others 4. In the field, Blanchard will be the final arbiter of disagreements regarding strategy, targets, etc.