SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE 

DATE:   6/5/98
STATUS:  NO-GO

EQUIPMENT STATUS: 
  Mobile Mesonets:  5 vehicles operational
  DOWS: operational
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  not operational
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS: 

Strong cold front has pushed to INK-JCT-LFK "line" by 13Z.  Large height 
falls have occurred in the southern Plains in response.  Broad middle and 
upper tropospheric trough is now present over the western 2/3 of the 
continental U.S.  


DAY 1 FORECAST:

CAPE has been removed over the Plains except for extreme southern TX 
south of the front.  Moisture remains high on the Gulf Coast, with mixing 
ratios around 21-22 g/kg.  Sufficient shear may be present south 
of the front for a few HP supercells later today.  Another MCS 
or two may also be triggered this evening north of the front in 
eastern TX, LA, or southern AR. SubVORTEX OPERATIONS WILL NOT BE 
CONDUCTED TODAY.


DAY 2 FORECAST:

Eta believes front will stall near Gulf Coast, with relatively strong 
high pressure over the Plains (surface ridge axis from Minot to Grand 
Island to Dalhart).  CAPE may be present in extreme southern TX from the 
Davis Mountains to DRT to the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints supporting 
desirable CAPE for operations are not expected to return to any 
targetable region (e.g., the High Plains of TX).  THUS, OPERATIONS ON 
SATURDAY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SATURDAY IS A HARD-DOWN DAY...NO 1030 AM 
STATUS WILL BE ISSUED...HOWEVER, A SATURDAY AFTERNOON STATUS WILL BE 
ISSUED DISCUSSING POSSIBLE EARLY DEPARTURE (I.E., BEFORE 10 AM) ON 
SUNDAY (See below for forecast).  IF YOU CANNOT CHECK YOUR EMAIL SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON, PLEASE BE SURE TO CHECK BY 8 AM SUNDAY.


DAY n FORECAST:

Moisture return to the High Plains may be sufficient as early as Sunday 
for operations.  Early departure may be warranted on Sunday depending on 
the location of the moist axis.  Sufficient shear for supercells is just 
about a guarantee beneath stout 80-100 kt zonal current and progged 
strong SElies at the sfc.  

Beyond Sunday, MRF and NOGAPS are in relatively good agreement that there 
will be several days in a row of High Plains dryline operations (with 
slight northward shifts each day possible if cap strength increases from 
south to north).  Unseasonably fast upper flow will persist, lee 
troughing will be strong, shear will be great, and CAPE should be large 
(q > 21 g/kg along Gulf available to be advected NWward).  This looks to 
be the main show for the season, so be prepared for several consecutive 
intercept days and possible overnights (depending on how far west dryline 
is).


MISCELLANEOUS:


1. NEXT STATUS WILL BE ISSUED SATURDAY AROUND 5 PM.  SATURDAY IS A 
HARD-DOWN FOR SUBVORTEX.

2. SUNDAY'S DEPARTURE MAY BE FOR A MULTI-DAY MISSION.  ADDITIONAL DETAILS 
WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON STATUS MESSAGE.

3. ALL TEAM MEMBERS ARE REQUIRED TO BE AT NSSL 30 MIN. PRIOR TO DEPARTURE 
SO THAT ALL VEHICLES MAY BE ADEQUATELY STAFFED (I.E., WE NEED TO KNOW HOW 
MANY SUBS WE NEED TO FIND BEFORE 5 MIN. PRIOR TO DEPARTING)...IF AN 1115 
AM DEPARTURE IS REQUIRED FOLLOWING A 1030 AM STATUS, THEN ARRIVE AS SOON AS 
YOU CAN.


Markowski/Blanchard