SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE 

DATE:   6/6/98
STATUS: EARLY DEPARTURE LIKELY SUNDAY...STATUS WILL BE ISSUED BY 845 AM SUNDAY

EQUIPMENT STATUS: 
  Mobile Mesonets:  5 vehicles operational
  DOWS: operational
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  not operational
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS: 

Front is presently just offshore of TX Gulf Coast.  Deep moisture remains 
at Brownsville and is expected to beginning returning northward tonight.  
Upper flow remains strong over the Plains. 


DAY 2 FORECAST:

Moisture return is expected to commence by 03Z and to be strong overnight and
Sunday.  Degree of moisture return is biggest uncertainty at this time.  
I feel that low 60s dewpoints may be possible tomorrow in the TX 
Panhandle, which would give rise to CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg on the 
higher terrain.  

Eta progs strong (996 mb) lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO Sunday 
afternoon.  A dryline should extend from somewhere near the low southward 
through the TX Panhandle.  Deep-layer shear will be very favorable for 
supercells from the High Plains of W NE through W TX.  

Warm 700 mb temperature are forecasted to spread NEward during Sunday 
over the High Plains; thus, I expect a southern limit to the chances of 
dryline initiation Sunday afternoon.  Initiation should be possible along 
the dryline in western KS, OK Panhandle, and most of the TX Panhandle, 
but the cap will probably preclude initiation south of Plainview or LBB.  

The most desirable target on Sunday will probably be the area farthest 
north that good moisture (say, the 60 F isodrosotherm on the high 
terrain?) returns to.  At this time it is suspected that this region will be 
the northern half of the TX Panhandle, the OK Panhandle, or possibly extreme 
SW KS (vertical shear is also expected to be greatest in this 
region).  THEREFORE, EARLY DEPARTURE ON SUNDAY IS PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY IF WE 
NEED TO BE WEST OF AN AMA-GCK LINE.  A STATUS MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 
845 AM SUNDAY.  DEPARTURE MAY BE AS EARLY AS 945 AM SUNDAY.


DAY n FORECAST:

NOGAPS still suggests an active High Plains period next week.  A trough 
is expected to amplify over time in the West, but stout upper flow will 
persist over the High Plains each day.  We may need to shift operations north 
or south each day on the High Plains depending on the location of jet maxima 
embedded in the flow and cap strength, but overall, supercells may
occur somewhere on the High Plains just about everyday next week.
Thus, a multi-day mission may be required, depending on the longitude of 
the dryline.  Sunday's status will address overnight and/or 
multi-night prospects.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1.  CHECK FOR THE STATUS MESSAGE THAT WILL BE ISSUED AT 845 AM SUNDAY.

2.  Sunday's mission may be an overnight mission.  This is still being 
assessed.

3.  D. Blanchard:  Map discussion will be from 735 to 845 am Sunday.  
Please meet me outside the Plaza Level of the Energy Center at 730 am.

Markowski