SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE 

DATE:  6/7/98
STATUS:  GO...11 AM DEPARTURE

EQUIPMENT STATUS: 
  Mobile Mesonets:  5 vehicles operational
  DOWS:  semi-operational
  UMASS Radar: down indefinitely
  Rockets:  not operational
  Turtles:  operational
  RALPH:  operational
  NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS: 

Sluggish mmoisture return is forecast to increase during the day...big 
question remains as to just how much can return to the region with weaker 
cap and colder temps aloft.  Shear will be extremely favorable for 
supercells.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

Low-level flow continues to increase on the High Plains per profiler 
data.  Latest RUC guidance suggests initiation along the dryline as early 
as 21Z.  CAPE will probably only be on the order of 1200-2000 J/kg, but 
low-level shear (SRH>500 anticipated, possibly as high as 800) will 
produce very significant dynamical contributions to low-level vertical 
motion (if you're an EHI believer, EHI for 600 SRH and 1200 CAPE is 4.5).


DAY 2 FORECAST:

Eta places surface low in SE CO with probable dryline continuing over 
High Plains.  Eta also shows 700 mb warming spreading over the 
southern half of the TX Panhandle and W TX, but the cap isn't 
expected to be as strong farther north.  Operations may be 
conducted anywhere from northern TX Panhandle to SW KS along the dryline.
Moisture should not be as big an issue.

DAY n FORECAST:

NOGAPS and MRF both show strong flow aloft for remainder of week 
(remainder of experiment)...both also amplify trough in West and ridge in 
eastern Plains, leading to warming aloft and the need to possibly venture 
north over time.


MISCELLANEOUS:

1. THIS WILL BE A MULTI-NIGHT TRIP

2. PLEASE ARRIVE AT THE LAB AS SOON AS YOU CAN...DEPARTURE WILL BE 
_PROMPTLY_ AT 11 AM FOR THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE

3. DRIVERS...PLEASE REFUEL BEFORE WE DEPART

4. CURRENT STAFFING WILL SUPPORT PROBES 1-3 AND CAM1...CAM2's OPERATIONS 
WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE APPEARANCE OF ADDITIONAL INDIVIDUALS


Markowski/Blanchard/Straka