SUBVORTEX STATUS MESSAGE

DATE: 6/8/98 STATUS: GO...Departing AMA at about 12:30 PM CDT

EQUIPMENT STATUS:
Mobile Mesonets: 5 vehicles marginally operational  (Two broken
  windshields and broken pressure ports; intermittent GPS on PROBE1)
DOWS: semi-operational
Turtles: operational
RALPH: operational
NOAA P-3:  operational

SYNOPSIS:

Shortwave lifting through NE will support a surface cyclone tracking across
S NE through the day.  The dryline will trail southwestward to about
Midland TX by evening.  Very deep, extremely humid and relatively cool
boundary layer exists in the southern and central Plains.  Poor low-level
lapse rates and weak inhibition should mean that supercells in E KS and E
NE will be relatively weak and convection should grow upscale quickly into
an MCS-type system.  Better inhibition, best 0-6 km shear, and best CAPE
will be in a band along the dryline from Woodward to Altus to Jayton TX by
00Z.

DAY 1 FORECAST:

Widespread convection in KS, MO, and E NE.  Briefly supercellular, then
trending toward more mesoscale type convection.  Probability of convection:
99%.  Cond prob of supercells given convection: 70%.  Cond probability of
tornadoes given supercells: 10% (owing to weak low-level accelerations).

Isolated-broken band of convection along the dryline from Spur TX to
Childress to Woodward.  Probability of convection from 30% south end to 70%
north end.  Conditional probability of supercells given convection 60%
south end; 80% CDS-Erick; 70% north end.  Conditional prob of tornadoes
given supercells generally 15%; 20-25% in a narrow zone where wetted soil
from last night's storm may give us a region of enhanced SRH (basically
near and north of CDS-LTS line.  > > DAY 2 FORECAST: > Dryline may retreat
in response to surface low forming in E CO (in response to next shortwave
ejecting from SW US).  Operations expected.


DAY n FORECAST:

MISCELLANEOUS:


WE WILL ATTEMPT A DRYLINE BOUNDARY STUDY TODAY IN THE E TX PANHANDLE WITH
KEVIN KNUPP AND THE MOBILE PROFILER FROM UAH.  THIS WILL BE DONE UP UNTIL
THE TIME OF INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

Erik Rasmussen